BNB Shows Short-Term Correction Risks But Targets $1,250–$1,565 by Year-End
BNB (BNB) has experienced a surge of over 10% this weekend, significantly outperforming a mostly stagnant crypto market that has remained unchanged. With its momentum standing apart from its competitors and entering price discovery, a pertinent question arises: can the Binance-linked token continue its upward trajectory?
Short-Term Correction Risks for BNB
BNB’s latest upturn has pushed the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart into overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term retreat. The token has dropped 2.89% from its peak of $1,083.50 reached earlier today.
A correction towards the 20-4H exponential moving average (20-4H EMA; the green wave) near $1,012 looks increasingly probable in the upcoming days, especially considering the recent declines in overbought conditions. This short-term target aligns well with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
If selling pressure intensifies next week, BNB’s decline may extend toward the 50-4H EMA around $974, a level that has consistently offered reliable trend support.
According to analyst Gael Gallot, as long as BNB remains above the $970 support level, it signifies healthy consolidation. He notes the trend of rising trading volume and long positions in the derivatives market.
In his Sunday update, he mentioned:
The $970 price floor also serves as the lower trendline of BNB’s larger ascending channel pattern.
Since June, each retest of this lower trendline has typically induced rebounds of 20–35% toward the channel’s upper boundary. Should this fractal pattern recur, BNB could break above $1,150 in October, an increase of 10% from the current price, even if it initially retraces toward $970 in the near term.
Looking ahead, BNB is poised for a potential year-end rally, driven by its breakout from a long-term cup-and-handle formation. The price has surpassed the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at around $1,037, converting this level into support. If momentum persists, upside targets materialize at $1,250 from the cup-and-handle breakout, and the 2.618 Fibonacci line approximating $1,565.
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This setup mirrors BNB’s astounding 2,650% increase that followed its ascending triangle breakout in 2020–2021. Additionally, BNB’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has returned to the optimism–anxiety zone, a level reminiscent of the 2020–2021 bull rally when prices soared from under $50 to over $600.
The current sentiment indicates that holders are tending toward optimism, often a precursor of mid-cycle strength. With both the technicals and fundamentals for BNB showing robustness, it may enter its most bullish phase of the cycle, despite potential short-term corrections.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision entails risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before proceeding with any decisions.
